Two Decades, or two years

Just eighteen months ago the Republican Party was a humiliated mess.  They had been mauled over two election cycles, membership had plummeted and new Democratic President was the Messiah.   I recall a cartoon I saw on my Yahoo Homepage that depicted Obama holding the world in his hands with light from his face shinning down and illuminating the entire planet.

Smiling Obama takes the Oath of Office 

Democrats were boasting that the Grand Old Party was dead and the World would be treated to the enlightenment that could only come from one party rule in the United States.  President Obama's Inauguration was more of a coronation than an inaugural affair..I recall one newspaper that didn't take his inauguration off the front page for weeks after the event...

In January 2009 the new presidents approval ratings stood at around 68%, today he struggles to keep the number in the forties.  The Party that was going to lead the Country and the World
for two decades is finding themselves in a same position the GOP was in two years earlier.  Members are blaming each other, Party Leadership and the President.  The Party leadership is blaming the American people for not being smart enough to appreciate them.  The President is doing what he's best at,  he's blaming  George Bush because people don't like the way he's running the country..

How bad is it?...

If you're a democrat, according to some polls it's never been worse.  Gallup recently published a poll that put the Republicans a head by 10 Points in a Generic Ballot.  that poll has been around almost 70 years.  Prior to this year the Republicans have never had more than a 5 point lead..  In 1994 with a 5 point lead they took 52 seats away from the Democrats.  This year they are positioned to do that and more.  By some estimates a loss of up to 90 seats is possible with kinder, gentler estimates placing the number between 60 and 70... 

Yep it's that bad, 

Right now Real Clear Politics is showing the Republicans with a 206 to 194 advantage with 35 to close to call.  Of the 35 only one is currently held by a Republican.  Indications are it can only get worse for Dems, but if that number holds and the thirty five seats get split, it mean a net pick up of 45 seats for the Elephants  Five more than they need.

I just said it looks like it will get worse, here's why.  Democrats are frustrated, and they're frustrated with the people they sent to Washington.  The Progressive liberal who hijacked the party are crying it's not liberal enough.  The traditional Democratic base, hard working people are being scared by what they see as a takeover of the party by a bunch of nuts. 

This is hard to believe,  but for the first time in eighty years more Republicans then Democrats voted in the primary.  This except came from an article in USA Today titled " Study: Democratic turnout for primaries lowest in 80 years" 

The new figures come from a just-released report by voter turnout expert Curtis Gans of American University.


Gans looked at 35 primaries held before Sept. 1 and found that 4 million more Republicans voted than Democrats -- statistical proof of the "enthusiasm gap" that pollsters and pundits have been talking about.

That, combined with the fact that the percentage of voters who identify themselves as Democrats has been on a steady decline for decades, spells big trouble for the president's party, Gans said: "The Democrats are at an enormous disadvantage."

Before we go any farther remember American University is not a Conservative institution by any measurement,  if anyone there thought about sugar coating the report it would have been in favor of the Democrats... and USA left out the most ominous part of bad news, it you're a Democrat..

 All indications are that this situation will get worse, if it ever gets better,” said Gans. “Major Republican gains will almost surely lead to the inability of the Democrats to enact any major programs, particularly with respect to jobs. And in the absence of a major and imaginative jobs program, it is hard to see the economic situation getting palpably better. And that is a recipe for further disillusionment.”



This election is not analagous to the election of 1982 prior to that of 1984, when President Reagan had all the tools necessary in both fiscal and monetary policy to restore growth. It is not an analagous to the election of 1938 before the election of 1940 because there will likely be no global conflict to provide impetus to massive government spending. If there is an analagous election, it could be that of 1994, where the Democrats lost massively but the Congressional Republicans under the leadership of Speaker Newt Gingrich egregiously exceeded their mandate. But the Democrats were able to successfully campaign in 1996 against those excesses, in part, because the economy was healthy enough for President Clinton to raise taxes, balance the federal budget and produce a surplus.

“All of which is to suggest that the odds favor the GOP in both 2010 and 2012, if they are careful. But since they don’t have any program to restore jobs and growth, it’s hard to feel hopeful about the state of either the economy or the polity.” Gans said.

You can read the entire report and look up the charts by clicking

In another sign that the Democratic Party is in deep trouble in the 2010 mid-term elections, the average Republican vote for statewide offices


What caused the collapse of the Democratic Regime that was supposed to last for Decades?The simple answer according to most experts, " It's the economy Stupid"  No-one can argue that plays a huge part.  In his State of the Union Address last January he promised he'd make jobs and the economy his top priority this year.  Then immediately went back to shoving an agenda Americans didn't want, down their throats, and completely forgot about all jobs that weren't part of his agenda.. At least until now, all of a sudden he;s interested in jobs and the economy again.  I wonder if it's because his party is about to get run of DC unless he finds a top hat with a rabbit in it?

Yes without question the economy is his biggest problem, but there's many others.  Tomorrow I'll get into;

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Obama style.